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New Yorkers will learn who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democrats against each other. The election has turned into an acrimonious face-off, marked by accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the direction that the party, struggling in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the party arguably not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

However, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement national Democrats' current model of cautious, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani personally. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent into office, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has faced difficulties in the final phase, after footage surfaced appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a DSA gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd